Fire Weather Outlook Day 1


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FNUS21 KWNS 151611
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

Valid 151700Z - 161200Z

The ongoing forecast is on track, with only minimal expansions to
the ongoing isolated dry thunderstorm area across northern
California and vicinity. Scattered, wetting thunderstorms are
expected across portions of Oregon, southern Idaho, northern Nevada,
and northern California throughout the forecast period.  Isolated
dry lightning strikes are possible with this activity.

See the previous discussion below for more information.

..Cook.. 07/15/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018/

...Synopsis...
...Portions of Central OR into northern NV and southwest ID...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected later this
afternoon into tonight as a weak shortwave trough moves inland and
tracks eastward across OR. PW values across the region range from
around 0.75 in to 1.0 in, which should produce some wetting rains.
However, storm motion may be fast enough to limit overall rain
accumulation as deep layer shear increases with the approach of the
trough. As a result, any strikes outside of the main rain core will
pose a threat for ignitions given dry fuels across the region.
Furthermore, deeply mixed sub-cloud layers will support gusty and
erratic outflow winds which could result in fast spread of any new
ignitions and/or adversely impact ongoing fires.  Thunderstorm
coverage may approach greater than 40%, however, PW values nearing
1.0 inch precludes an upgrade in dry thunder probabilities at this
time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$


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